← Common Ground workspace Research & Notes

Origin Research

Democratic Republic of Congo — Kivu

History & Context

Coffee was introduced to the DRC in 1881 from Liberia. Belgian colonists discovered Coffea canephora (Robusta) in 1898, though the finest specialty coffee grown there is Arabica, concentrated in the eastern Kivu region. Production boomed under Belgian colonial rule with government-backed research stations, then collapsed post-independence in 1960 as estates were marginalised.

The Congo Wars (1996–2003) triggered a further collapse — production dropped to just 2% of its peak by 1996. The result is an origin that the market has largely ignored for 30 years, creating a significant quality-to-price arbitrage that is only now beginning to close.

Both government and NGOs have invested heavily in reviving the sector since 2003. The country is now considered an up-and-coming producer of speciality coffees, with significant unrealised potential.

Taste Profile

The very best coffees from the DRC have a delightful fruitiness, are sweet, and can be pleasingly full-bodied. Cup scores rival Ethiopia and Kenya at a fraction of current market price.

Traceability

Almost all DRC coffee is produced by groups of smallholders or cooperatives. It is extremely unlikely to find single-estate production — structurally aligned with a B Corp cooperative sourcing model.

Growing Regions

Nord-Kivu and Sud-Kivu are the primary Arabica-growing regions. High altitude, lake-effect microclimate. Adjacent to Rwanda and Burundi — two already-established specialty origins.

The Arbitrage Window

DRC coffee currently trades 30–40% below comparable African origins. Rwanda and Burundi are now established. DRC is next. Early movers who build the origin story own it.

Key insight: The smallholder cooperative structure isn't a limitation — it's a feature. It means every purchase can be traced to a named producer group, which is exactly the kind of verifiable human story that influencer audiences trust and share.

Investment Framework

Six-dimension assessment — influencer white-label model

🟢
Distribution
Cold-start eliminated. Influencer is the channel. Pure B2B sales motion.
🟢
Unit Economics
£143k net yr 1 per 1M-audience brand. Subscription tail compounds.
🟢
Capital Structure
Pre-order model can make pilot near zero-risk. £50k validates thesis.
🟡
Defensibility
Influencer exclusivity + DRC origin + B Corp. Playbook is the moat over time.
🟢
Timing & Fit
Creator commerce at peak. Tom's B2B instinct maps directly to influencer sales.
🟡
Exit Optionality
At 50 brands + £30M rev: strategic acquirer exit £60–120M is realistic.
The single validation number: Subscription take rate. At 5% it's a lifestyle income. At 15%+ it's a platform worth building to exit. One pilot launch answers this question before any significant capital is committed.

Supply Chain

How to source for the pilot

Phase 1: Use existing UK importers (validation)

Don't go direct to DRC before proving demand. Several UK importers already carry DRC Kivu lots with traceability documentation. Request samples, cup scores, and pricing. This gets you to launch without a supply chain build.

Mercanta
One of the UK's leading specialty importers. Known DRC lots.
Request samples →
DR Wakefield
Long-established UK green bean importer. African origins focus.
Request samples →
Raw Material
Specialty importer with direct trade relationships in East/Central Africa.
Request samples →

Phase 2: Contract UK roaster (validation + growth)

Use a contract roaster for white-label production. No capital commitment, no equipment. Roasters who offer white-label services will roast to your spec and ship under your brand packaging. Cost: approximately £1.50/bag on top of green bean cost.

Target: specialty roasters in London or major UK cities with existing African origin expertise and proven white-label capability.

Phase 3: Direct DRC supply chain (scale)

Once pilot demand is proven, visit Kivu region to establish direct cooperative relationships. The site visit also generates brand content — footage of farmers, processing stations, and origin that every influencer partner can use. Budget £5–8k for a 10-day trip once pilot launch is confirmed.

Model Evolution

How the thinking developed

Original model: Green bean trader

The initial analysis modelled three tiers of direct coffee trading — green bean trader (13% ROI, 7.5yr payback), processing partner (16% ROI), and branded D2C (64% ROI but capital-hungry). The critical flaw in all three was the cold-start distribution problem: how do you find your first customers?

The pivot: Influencer white-label

The insight that changed the model: what if the influencer already has the audience? Instead of building distribution from scratch, you partner with people who already have it. The cold-start problem disappears entirely. CAC becomes zero upfront and 100% performance-based (rev share only paid on conversions).

The model also creates a natural B2B sales motion — selling to influencers as business partners — which plays directly to Tom's background and strengths.

The subscription tail is the key insight

A launch generates immediate cash. But the subscription tail is what makes this a platform rather than a trading business. At 10% subscription take rate on a 1M-audience launch (10,000 orders → 1,000 subscribers at £18/month), you build £18,000/month MRR from a single partner. Across 20 brands that's £360,000/month. That number compounds every time a new brand launches.